Kuva mu 2021 kugeza 2022, habaye iterambere ryihuse ku isoko rya semiconductor ku isi kubera ko hagaragaye ibyifuzo byihariye bituruka ku cyorezo cya COVID-19.Ariko, nkuko ibyifuzo byihariye byatewe nicyorezo cya COVID-19 byarangiye mugice cya nyuma cyumwaka wa 2022 bikinjira muri kimwe mubibazo bikomeye byabayeho mumateka mumwaka wa 2023.
Icyakora, ubukungu bwifashe nabi cyane biteganijwe ko bugabanuka mu 2023, biteganijwe ko uyu mwaka uzakira neza (2024).
Mubyukuri, urebye buri gihembwe cyoherejwe na semiconductor buri gihembwe muburyo butandukanye, Logic yamaze kurenga impinga yatewe nibisabwa bidasanzwe bya COVID-19 kandi ishyiraho amateka mashya.Byongeye kandi, Mos Micro na Analog birashoboka ko bizagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka mu 2024, kubera ko igabanuka ryatewe n’irangira rya COVID-19 risabwa ridasanzwe (Ishusho 1).
Muri byo, Mos Memory yagize ihungabana rikomeye, nyuma iramanuka mu gihembwe cya mbere (Q1) cyo mu 2023 itangira urugendo rugana gukira.Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, birasa nkaho bigisaba umwanya utari muto kugirango ugere ku mpinga ya COVID-19 idasanzwe.Ariko, niba Mos Memory irenze impinga zayo, ibicuruzwa bitwara ibicuruzwa bitwara ibicuruzwa ntagushidikanya ko bizagera ku mateka mashya.Njye mbona, niba ibi bibaye, birashobora kuvugwa ko isoko rya semiconductor ryagarutse neza.
Ariko, urebye impinduka zoherejwe na semiconductor, biragaragara ko iki gitekerezo cyibeshye.Ni ukubera ko, mugihe ibicuruzwa byoherejwe na Mos Memory, biri gukira, ahanini byagaruwe, ibyoherejwe na Logic, bigeze ahirengeye mumateka, biracyari kurwego rwo hasi cyane.Muyandi magambo, kugirango mubyukuri byongere isoko yisi yose, ibicuruzwa byoherejwe bigomba kwiyongera cyane.
Kubwibyo, muri iki kiganiro, tuzasesengura ibyoherejwe na semiconductor hamwe nubunini bwubwoko butandukanye bwa semiconductor hamwe na semiconductor zose.Ibikurikira, tuzakoresha itandukaniro riri hagati yo kohereza Logic no kohereza nkurugero kugirango twerekane uburyo ibyoherejwe na TSMC bya wafer bikiri inyuma nubwo byakize vuba.Byongeye kandi, tuzasuzuma impamvu iri tandukaniro rihari kandi tunasaba ko kugarura byuzuye kwisoko rya semiconductor kwisi bishobora gutinda kugeza 2025.
Mu gusoza, isura igaragara yo kugarura isoko ya semiconductor ni "illuzion" yatewe na GPUs ya NVIDIA, ifite ibiciro biri hejuru cyane.Kubwibyo, birasa nkaho isoko ya semiconductor itazakira neza kugeza igihe ibishingwe nka TSMC bigeze kubushobozi bwuzuye kandi ibyoherejwe na Logic bigeze mumateka mashya.
Semiconductor Kohereza Agaciro nisesengura ryinshi
Igishushanyo cya 2 cyerekana imigendekere yibyoherejwe nubunini bwubwoko butandukanye bwa semiconductor kimwe nisoko rya semiconductor yose.
Ibicuruzwa byoherejwe na Mos Micro byageze mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2021, bikamanuka mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, bitangira gukira.Ku rundi ruhande, ubwinshi bwoherejwe bwerekanye ko nta mpinduka nini yagaragaye, hasigaye hafi kuva ku wa gatatu kugeza mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2023, hamwe no kugabanuka gato.
Ibicuruzwa byoherejwe na Mos Memory byatangiye kugabanuka cyane guhera mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, bikamanuka mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, bitangira kuzamuka, ariko byagaruwe kugeza kuri 40% by’agaciro keza mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka umwe.Hagati aho, ibicuruzwa byoherejwe byagarutse kugera kuri 94% byurwego rwo hejuru.Muyandi magambo, igipimo cyo gukoresha uruganda rwabakora memoire gifatwa nkaho cyegereye ubushobozi bwuzuye.Ikibazo nukuntu ibiciro bya DRAM na NAND flash biziyongera.
Ubwinshi bwoherejwe na Logic bwageze mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, bugabanuka mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, nyuma buragaruka, bugera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka mu gihembwe cya kane cy'uwo mwaka.Ku rundi ruhande, ibicuruzwa byoherejwe byageze mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, hanyuma bigabanuka kugera kuri 65% by'agaciro k'impinga mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2023 kandi bikomeza kuba byiza mu gihembwe cya kane cy'umwaka umwe.Muyandi magambo, hari itandukaniro rikomeye hagati yimyitwarire yagaciro kwoherejwe nubunini bwoherejwe muri Logic.
Ibicuruzwa byoherejwe byagereranijwe byageze mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022, bikamanuka mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2023, kandi kuva icyo gihe byagumye bihamye.Ku rundi ruhande, nyuma yo kugera mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022, agaciro kwoherejwe gakomeje kugabanuka kugeza mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2023.
Hanyuma, muri rusange igiciro cyoherejwe na semiconductor cyaragabanutse cyane kuva mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, cyamanutse mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, gitangira kuzamuka, gisubira hafi 96% byagaciro keza mugihembwe cya kane cyumwaka umwe.Ku rundi ruhande, ubwinshi bwoherejwe nabwo bwaragabanutse cyane guhera mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, bugabanuka mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, ariko kuva icyo gihe bukomeza kuba bwiza, hafi 75% by’agaciro k’impinga.
Duhereye ku bimaze kuvugwa haruguru, bigaragara ko Mos Memory ari agace k’ibibazo niba harebwa gusa umubare woherejwe, kuko wagaruwe gusa kuri 40% byagaciro.Nyamara, dufatiye ku buryo bwagutse, dushobora kubona ko Logic ihangayikishijwe cyane, nubwo nubwo yageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka mu bwinshi bwoherejwe, agaciro kwoherejwe karahagaze hafi 65% y’agaciro k’impinga.Ingaruka z'iri tandukaniro hagati ya Logic yoherejwe ubwinshi nagaciro bisa nkaho bigera kumurima wose wa semiconductor.
Muncamake, kugarura isoko rya semiconductor kwisi yose biterwa nuko ibiciro bya Mos Memory byiyongera kandi niba ubwinshi bwibicuruzwa bya Logic byiyongera cyane.Hamwe n'ibiciro bya DRAM na NAND bikomeje kuzamuka, ikibazo kinini nukuzamura ibicuruzwa byoherejwe na Logic.
Ubutaha, tuzasobanura imyitwarire yubwinshi bwa TSMC yoherejwe hamwe na wafer yoherejwe kugirango twerekane neza itandukaniro riri hagati yubwinshi bwibyoherejwe na Logic.
TSMC Igihembwe cyoherejwe Agaciro na Wafer yoherejwe
Igishushanyo cya 3 cyerekana kugurisha kwa TSMC kugabanuka no kugurisha kwa 7nm no hejuru yibikorwa mugihembwe cya kane cya 2023.
TSMC imyanya 7nm no kurenga nkumutwe wateye imbere.Mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2023, 7nm bingana na 17%, 5nm kuri 35%, na 3nm kuri 15%, byose hamwe 67% byimbere.Byongeye kandi, buri gihembwe kugurisha ibicuruzwa byateye imbere byariyongereye kuva mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2021, byagabanutse rimwe mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2022, ariko biramanuka kandi bitangira kongera kuzamuka mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2023, bigera ku mateka mashya muri igihembwe cya kane cy'umwaka umwe.
Muyandi magambo, iyo urebye kugurisha imikorere yimikorere igezweho, TSMC ikora neza.None, tuvuge iki kuri TSMC muri rusange igihembwe cyo kugurisha no kohereza wafer (Ishusho 4)?
Imbonerahamwe yerekana igihembwe cya TSMC cyoherejwe hamwe na wafer yoherejwe hafi.Yageze hejuru cyane muri IT IT 2000, igabanuka nyuma yo guhungabana kwa Lehman 2008, ikomeza kugabanuka nyuma yo guturika kwa bubble 2018.
Ariko, imyitwarire nyuma yimpinga yibisabwa bidasanzwe mugihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022 iratandukanye.Igicuruzwa cyoherejwe cyageze kuri miliyari 20.2 z'amadolari, nyuma kigabanuka cyane ariko gitangira kwiyongera nyuma yo kugabanuka kuri miliyari 15.7 z'amadolari mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2023, kigera kuri miliyari 19.7 z'amadolari mu gihembwe cya kane cy'uwo mwaka, kikaba ari 97% by'agaciro gakomeye.
Ku rundi ruhande, igihembwe cya gatatu cyoherejwe cya wafer cyageze kuri miliyoni 3.97 za wafer mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022, hanyuma kiragabanuka, kiva kuri waferi miliyoni 2.92 mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2023, ariko gikomeza kuba cyiza nyuma yaho.Ndetse no mu gihembwe cya kane cy'uwo mwaka, nubwo umubare wa waferi woherejwe wagabanutse ku buryo bugaragara kuva ku mpinga, wagumye kuri miliyoni 2 n'ibihumbi bibiri bya waferi, kugabanuka kwa wafer zirenga miliyoni 1 kuva ku mpinga.
Igice kinini gikoreshwa na TSMC ni Logic.Igihembwe cya kane TSMC yagurishijwe 2023 igurishwa ryambere ryageze ku mateka mashya, aho kugurisha muri rusange byagarutse kuri 97% byamateka.Nyamara, buri gihembwe ibicuruzwa bya wafer byari bikiri hejuru ya miriyoni imwe ya waferi ugereranije nigihe cyo hejuru.Muyandi magambo, igipimo rusange cya TSMC cyo gukoresha uruganda ni 75% gusa.
Ku bijyanye n’isoko rya semiconductor ku isi muri rusange, ibicuruzwa byoherejwe byagabanutse kugera kuri 65% byimpinga mugihe cya COVID-19 idasanzwe.Mubisanzwe, TSMC yoherejwe buri gihembwe wafer yagabanutseho miriyoni zirenga 1 ziva mu mpinga, aho ikoreshwa ry’uruganda rigeze kuri 75%.
Urebye imbere, kugirango isoko ya semiconductor yisi yose igaruke mubyukuri, ibicuruzwa byoherejwe bigomba kwiyongera cyane, kandi kugirango bigerweho, igipimo cyo gukoresha ibishingwe kiyobowe na TSMC kigomba kwegera ubushobozi bwuzuye.
None, ubwo bizabera ryari?
Guteganya Igipimo cyo Gukoresha Ibishingwe Bikuru
Ku ya 14 Ukuboza 2023, isosiyete ikora ubushakashatsi muri Tayiwani TrendForce yakoresheje amahugurwa "Inganda yibanze ku makuru" muri Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel.Muri aya mahugurwa, umusesenguzi wa TrendForce, Joanna Chiao yaganiriye ku "Strategy ya TSMC ku Isi n’isoko rya Semiconductor Foundry Market Outlook yo mu 2024."Mu zindi ngingo, Joanna Chiao yavuze ku bijyanye no guhanura ibipimo byo gukoresha ibishingwe (Ishusho
Logic yoherejwe iziyongera ryari?
Ibi 8% bifite akamaro cyangwa bidafite akamaro?Nubwo iki ari ikibazo cyihishe, ndetse no muri 2026, 92% ya wafer isigaye izakomeza gukoreshwa na chip ya semiconductor itari AI.Ibyinshi muribi bizaba Logic chips.Kubwibyo, kugirango ibicuruzwa byoherejwe byiyongere kandi kubishingwe bikomeye biyobowe na TSMC kugirango bigere kubushobozi bwuzuye, ibisabwa kubikoresho bya elegitoronike nka terefone zigendanwa, PC, na seriveri bigomba kwiyongera.
Muri make, nkurikije uko ibintu bimeze ubu, ntabwo nizera ko imashanyarazi ya AI nka GPUs ya NVIDIA izadukiza.Kubwibyo, byizerwa ko isoko rya semiconductor kwisi yose itazakira neza kugeza 2024, cyangwa ngo itinde kugeza 2025.
Ariko, hariho ubundi buryo (optimistic) bushoboka bushobora gukuraho ubu buhanuzi.
Kugeza ubu, AI semiconductor zose zasobanuwe zagiye zerekeza kuri semiconductor zashyizwe muri seriveri.Ariko, ubu hariho inzira yo gukora AI gutunganya kuri terefone (impande) nka mudasobwa bwite, terefone zigendanwa, na tableti.
Ingero zirimo Intel PC ya Intel yatanzwe na Samsung igerageza gukora Smartphone za AI.Niba ibi bimaze kumenyekana (muyandi magambo, niba udushya tubaye), isoko rya AI igice cya kabiri kizaguka vuba.Mubyukuri, ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi muri Amerika Gartner giteganya ko mu mpera za 2024, kohereza telefoni zigendanwa za AI bizagera kuri miliyoni 240, naho kohereza za PC PC zikagera kuri miliyoni 54.5 (kugira ngo zerekanwe gusa).Niba ubu buhanuzi buba impamo, ibyifuzo byo guhanagura Logic biziyongera (ukurikije agaciro koherejwe numubare), kandi igipimo cyo gukoresha imishinga nka TSMC kizamuka.Byongeye kandi, ibyifuzo bya MPU na memoire nabyo biziyongera rwose.
Muyandi magambo, iyo isi nkiyi igeze, AI semiconductor igomba kuba umukiza nyawe.Kubwibyo, guhera ubu, ndashaka kwibanda ku cyerekezo cya AI semiconductor.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Apr-08-2024