Kuva mu 2021 kugeza 2022, habayeho iterambere ryihuse ku isoko ry’ingufu za semiconductor ku isi bitewe n’izamuka ry’ibikenewe byihariye byatewe n’icyorezo cya COVID-19. Ariko, kubera ko ibikenewe byihariye byatewe n’icyorezo cya COVID-19 byarangiye mu gice cya nyuma cya 2022 bikinjira mu ihungabana rikomeye ry’ubukungu mu mateka mu 2023.
Ariko, ihungabana rikomeye ry’ubukungu ryitezwe kuzagabanuka mu 2023, kandi biteganijwe ko bizagenda neza muri uyu mwaka (2024).
Mu by’ukuri, urebye kohereza ibicuruzwa bya semiconductor buri gihembwe mu bwoko butandukanye, Logic yamaze kurenga urwego rw’ikirenga rwatewe n’ibisabwa byihariye bya COVID-19 kandi ishyiraho urwego rushya rw’amateka. Byongeye kandi, Mos Micro na Analog birashoboka ko bizagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka mu 2024, kuko kugabanuka kwatewe n’ibisabwa byihariye bya COVID-19 kurangira atari ikintu gikomeye (Ishusho ya 1).
Muri byo, Mos Memory yahuye n'igabanuka rikomeye, hanyuma imanuka mu gihembwe cya mbere (Q1) cya 2023 itangira urugendo rwayo rwo gukira. Ariko, bisa nkaho bigisaba igihe kinini kugira ngo igere ku rwego rwo hejuru rw'ibikenewe byihariye bya COVID-19. Ariko, niba Mos Memory irenze urugero rwayo, nta gushidikanya ko ibicuruzwa byose bya semiconductor bizagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka. Mu bitekerezo byanjye, ibi nibibaho, bishobora kuvugwa ko isoko rya semiconductor ryagarutse neza.
Ariko, urebye impinduka mu kohereza ibikoresho bya semiconductor, biragaragara ko iki gitekerezo ari ikosa. Ibi biterwa nuko, nubwo kohereza ibikoresho bya Mos Memory, biri mu kugarura ibikoresho, byagarutse cyane, kohereza ibikoresho bya Logic, byageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka, bikiri ku rwego rwo hasi cyane. Mu yandi magambo, kugira ngo isoko ry’ibikoresho bya semiconductor ku isi rivugururwe by’ukuri, kohereza ibikoresho bya logique bigomba kwiyongera cyane.
Kubwibyo, muri iyi nkuru, tuzasesengura ibyoherezwa bya semiconductor n'ingano y'ubwoko butandukanye bwa semiconductor na semiconductor zose. Hanyuma, tuzakoresha itandukaniro riri hagati y'ibyoherezwa bya Logic n'ibyoherezwa nk'urugero kugira ngo tugaragaze uburyo ibyoherezwa bya TSMC bya wafers biri inyuma nubwo byagarutse vuba. Byongeye kandi, tuzatekereza impamvu iri tandukaniro ririho kandi tugaragaze ko kuzahura burundu kw'isoko ry'isi rya semiconductors bishobora gutinda kugeza mu 2025.
Muri make, uko isoko rya semiconductor rigenda rizamuka ubu ni "igihuha" giterwa na GPU za NVIDIA, zifite ibiciro biri hejuru cyane. Kubwibyo, bigaragara ko isoko rya semiconductor ritazagaruka neza kugeza igihe ibigo bikora ibikoresho nka TSMC bizagera ku bunini bwuzuye n'uko ibyoherezwa bya Logic bigeze ku rwego rwo hejuru rw'amateka.
Isesengura ry'agaciro k'ibicuruzwa bya semiconductor n'ingano
Ishusho ya 2 igaragaza uko ibintu bihagaze mu gaciro n'ingano by'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ku bwoko butandukanye bwa semiconductor ndetse n'isoko ryose rya semiconductor.
Umubare w’ibicuruzwa bya Mos Micro byageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2021, bigabanuka mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, bitangira kuzamuka. Ku rundi ruhande, umubare w’ibicuruzwa byatanzwe nta mpinduka zigaragara wagaragaje, byakomeje kuba nk’aho biri hagati y’igihembwe cya gatatu n’icya kane cya 2023, ariko byagabanutseho gato.
Agaciro k'ibicuruzwa bya Mos Memory katangiye kugabanuka cyane uhereye mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, kagabanuka mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, katangira kuzamuka, ariko kagaruka gusa ku kigero cya 40% by'agaciro kari hejuru mu gihembwe cya kane cy'umwaka umwe. Hagati aho, umubare w'ibicuruzwa byagarutse ugera kuri 94% by'urwego rw'ikirenga. Mu yandi magambo, igipimo cy'ikoreshwa ry'inganda zikora ububiko bw'ibikoresho bya memory gifatwa nk'aho kiri hafi kugera ku bushobozi bwose. Ikibazo ni iki: ibiciro bya DRAM na NAND flash biziyongeraho angahe.
Umubare w’ibicuruzwa bya Logic wageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, ugera ku rwego rwo hasi mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, hanyuma ugaruka, ugera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka umwe. Ku rundi ruhande, agaciro k’ibicuruzwa byageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, hanyuma ugabanuka ugera kuri 65% by’agaciro k’ibicuruzwa mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2023 kandi ukomeza kuba nta kibazo mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka umwe. Mu yandi magambo, hari itandukaniro rikomeye hagati y’imyitwarire y’agaciro k’ibicuruzwa n’ingano y’ibicuruzwa muri Logic.
Umubare w’ibicuruzwa bya analog byageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022, bigabanuka mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2023, kandi kuva icyo gihe byakomeje kugaragara. Ku rundi ruhande, nyuma yo kugera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022, agaciro k’ibicuruzwa byakomeje kugabanuka kugeza mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2023.
Amaherezo, agaciro k’ibicuruzwa bya semiconductor muri rusange kagabanutse cyane uhereye mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, kagera hasi mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, kandi gatangira kuzamuka, kagera hafi kuri 96% by’agaciro kari hejuru mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka umwe. Ku rundi ruhande, umubare w’ibicuruzwa byagabanutse cyane uhereye mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2022, ukagera hasi mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2023, ariko kuva icyo gihe kakomeje kuba nta kibazo, hafi 75% by’agaciro kari hejuru.
Dukurikije ibyavuzwe haruguru, bigaragara ko Mos Memory ari yo kibazo iyo harebwe umubare w’ibicuruzwa byoherejwe gusa, kuko byagarutse gusa kuri 40% by’agaciro gakomeye. Ariko, mu buryo bwagutse, dushobora kubona ko Logic ari ikibazo gikomeye, kuko nubwo yageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka mu mubare w’ibicuruzwa byoherejwe, agaciro k’ibicuruzwa byoherejwe kahagaze kuri 65% by’agaciro gakomeye. Ingaruka z’iri tandukaniro hagati y’umubare w’ibicuruzwa byoherejwe na Logic zisa nkaho zigeze ku rwego rwose rwa semiconductor.
Muri make, kuzahura kw'isoko ry'ibikoresho bya semiconductor ku isi biterwa niba ibiciro bya Mos Memory byiyongera ndetse niba umubare w'ibikoresho bya Logic wiyongera cyane. Ibiciro bya DRAM na NAND bikomeje kwiyongera, ikibazo gikomeye kizaba ukongera umubare w'ibikoresho bya Logic.
Hanyuma, tuzasobanura imyitwarire y'ingano y'ibicuruzwa bya TSMC n'ibicuruzwa bya wafer kugira ngo tugaragaze neza itandukaniro riri hagati y'ingano y'ibicuruzwa bya Logic n'ibicuruzwa bya wafer.
Agaciro k'ibyoherezwa bya TSMC buri gihembwe n'ibyoherezwa bya Wafer
Ishusho ya 3 igaragaza isesengura ry’ibicuruzwa bya TSMC hakurikijwe node hamwe n’icyerekezo cy’ibicuruzwa bya 7nm no hejuru yabyo mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2023.
TSMC ifata 7nm no kurenzaho nk'uduce tw’ikoranabuhanga. Mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2023, 7nm yari 17%, 5nm ikaba 35%, na 3nm ikaba 15%, byose hamwe bikaba 67% by'uduce tw’ikoranabuhanga. Byongeye kandi, kugurisha uduce tw’ikoranabuhanga tw’ikoranabuhanga tw’ikoranabuhanga twiyongereye kuva mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2021, byagabanutse rimwe mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2022, ariko byazamutse bitangira kuzamuka mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2023, bigera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka umwe.
Mu yandi magambo, iyo urebye imikorere y’ibicuruzwa bya TSMC ku bijyanye n’ubucuruzi bw’ibigo bigezweho, ubona ko TSMC ikora neza. None se, bigende bite ku bijyanye n’amafaranga yinjira mu bicuruzwa bya TSMC mu gihembwe cyose ndetse n’ayoherezwa mu buryo bwa wafer (Ishusho ya 4)?
Imbonerahamwe y'agaciro k'ibicuruzwa bya TSMC mu gihembwe n'ibicuruzwa bya wafer byoherejwe birahuye neza. Byageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu gihe cy'ibicuruzwa bya IT byo mu 2000, byagabanutse nyuma y'ihungabana rya Lehman ryo mu 2008, kandi bikomeza kugabanuka nyuma y'ihungabana rya 2018.
Ariko, imyitwarire nyuma y’ubwinshi bw’ibikenewe byihariye mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022 iratandukanye. Agaciro k’ibicuruzwa byoherejwe kageze kuri miliyari 20.2 z’amadolari y’Amerika, hanyuma kagabanuka cyane ariko gatangira kuzamuka nyuma yo kugabanuka kagera kuri miliyari 15.7 z’amadolari y’Amerika mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2023, kagera kuri miliyari 19.7 z’amadolari y’Amerika mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka umwe, bingana na 97% by’agaciro k’ubwinshi.
Ku rundi ruhande, umubare w’ibicuruzwa bya wafer bya buri gihembwe wageze kuri miliyoni 3.97 z’ama-wafer mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2022, hanyuma ugabanuka, ugera kuri miliyoni 2.92 z’ama-wafer mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2023, ariko nyuma yaho ukomeza kuba nta kibazo. Ndetse no mu gihembwe cya kane cy’uyu mwaka, nubwo umubare w’ibicuruzwa bya wafer byoherejwe wagabanutse cyane ugereranije n’umubare w’ibicuruzwa, wagumye kuri miliyoni 2.96 z’ama-wafer, bigabanya umubare w’ibicuruzwa bya wafer birenga miliyoni imwe ugereranyije n’umubare w’ibicuruzwa.
Imashini zikoreshwa cyane muri semiconductor zikorwa na TSMC ni Logic. Ibiciro bya TSMC byo mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2023 byageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka, aho ibicuruzwa byose byazamutse bigera kuri 97% by'igihembwe cy'amateka. Ariko, ibicuruzwa bya buri gihembwe bya wafer byari bikiri bike ugereranyije n'igihe cy'amateka. Mu yandi magambo, igipimo cy'ikoreshwa ry'uruganda muri rusange rwa TSMC ni hafi 75%.
Ku bijyanye n'isoko ry'ibikoresho bya semiconductor ku isi muri rusange, ibicuruzwa bya Logic byagabanutse bigera kuri 65% by'umubare w'ibicuruzwa byari byiyongereyeho mu gihe cy'ubusabe bwihariye bwa COVID-19. Buri gihe, ibicuruzwa bya TSMC bya buri gihembwe byagabanutseho ibicuruzwa birenga miliyoni imwe ugereranije n'umubare w'ibicuruzwa byari byiyongereyeho, aho igipimo cy'ikoreshwa ry'uruganda kigera kuri 75%.
Mu gihe urebye imbere, kugira ngo isoko ry’ibikoresho bya semiconductor ku isi rigaruke by’ukuri, ibyoherezwa bya Logic bigomba kwiyongera cyane, kandi kugira ngo ibi bigerweho, igipimo cy’ikoreshwa ry’inganda ziyobowe na TSMC kigomba kugera ku bushobozi bwuzuye.
None se, ibi bizaba ryari koko?
Guteganya Ingano y'Ikoreshwa ry'Ibikoresho Bikuru by'Imari
Ku ya 14 Ukuboza 2023, isosiyete y’ubushakashatsi yo muri Tayiwani yitwa TrendForce yateguye inama y’"Inganda zibanda ku makuru" muri Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. Muri iyo nama, inzobere mu by’ikoranabuhanga rya TrendForce, Joanna Chiao, yavuze ku "Ingamba z’Isi za TSMC n’Ishusho y’Isoko ry’Ibikoresho bya Semiconductor mu 2024." Mu zindi ngingo, Joanna Chiao yavuze ku bijyanye no guhanura igipimo cy’ikoreshwa ry’ibikoresho bya fondasiyo (Ishusho).
Ni ryari kohereza ibicuruzwa bya Logic bizazamuka?
Ese ibi 8% bifite akamaro cyangwa ntacyo bivuze? Nubwo iki ari ikibazo kidasobanutse neza, ndetse no mu 2026, 92% bisigaye bya wafers bizakomeza gukoreshwa na chips za semiconductor zitari iza AI. Inyinshi muri zo zizaba ari chips za Logic. Kubwibyo, kugira ngo ibyoherezwa bya Logic byiyongere kandi ibigo bikomeye biyobowe na TSMC bigere ku bushobozi bwuzuye, icyifuzo cy'ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga nka telefoni zigendanwa, mudasobwa, na seriveri kigomba kwiyongera.
Muri make, nkurikije uko ibintu bimeze ubu, sinemera ko za semiconductor za AI nka GPU za NVIDIA zizatubera umukiza. Kubwibyo, bikekwa ko isoko rya semiconductor ku isi ritazasubira neza kugeza mu 2024, cyangwa ngo rinatindwe kugeza mu 2025.
Ariko, hari ikindi kintu (cy'icyizere) gishobora gusenya ubu buhanuzi.
Kugeza ubu, semiconductor zose za AI zasobanuwe zavugaga semiconductor zashyizwe muri seriveri. Ariko, ubu hari icyerekezo cyo gukora ikoranabuhanga rya AI kuri terminals (edges) nka mudasobwa, telefoni zigendanwa, na tableti.
Ingero zirimo Intel yashyizeho AI PC n'igerageza rya Samsung ryo gukora telefoni zigendanwa za AI. Izi nizikundwa (mu yandi magambo, nihabaho udushya), isoko rya semiconductor za AI rizaguka vuba. Mu by'ukuri, ikigo cy'ubushakashatsi cyo muri Amerika Gartner giteganya ko mu mpera za 2024, kohereza telefoni zigendanwa za AI bizagera kuri miliyoni 240, naho kohereza za AI PC bizagera kuri miliyoni 54.5 (nk'uko byasobanuwe gusa). Ibi nibiba impamo, icyifuzo cya Logic igezweho kiziyongera (mu bijyanye n'agaciro k'ibyoherezwa n'ingano yabyo), kandi igipimo cy'ikoreshwa ry'inganda nka TSMC kiziyongera. Byongeye kandi, icyifuzo cya MPU na memory nabyo bizakura vuba cyane.
Mu yandi magambo, iyo isi nk'iyi igeze, abakora semiconductors ba AI bagomba kuba abakiza nyakuri. Kubwibyo, kuva ubu, ndifuza kwibanda ku miterere y'abakora semiconductors ba AI bakomeye.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mata-08-2024